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Austin, David H.; MacAuley, Molly K.. |
This paper describes a model for estimating, in a probabilistic framework, expected future consumer surplus from planned new product innovations. The model has been applied to estimations of taxpayer benefits from NASA's New Millenium Program (NMP), which develops new technologies for space science, and to the digital data storage technologies being supported by the Department of Commerce's Advanced Technology Program (ATP). The model uses cost index methods based on consumers' estimated marginal valuation for quality improvements in the technology. Probabilistic values for performance increases are taken from the innovators' own expectations. The analysis reveals the sensitivity of welfare increases to these values, which are assumed to be biased upward.... |
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Quality-adjusted cost index; Consumer surplus; Innovation; Environmental Economics and Policy; O32; H43; D60. |
Ano: 1998 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10655 |
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